US Department of Agriculture Forecast Increase in Argentina Wheat Export
The Buenos Aires attaché of the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Services agency has raised its estimate for Argentina’s wheat exports for marketing year 2021-22 (December-November) by 32.2% year on year to a record 15.2 million mt.
The projection is higher than the USDA’s official estimate for Argentina’s wheat exports for MY 2021-22 of 13.5 million mt in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Jan. 12.
It is also higher than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s estimate of 13.3 million mt.
The higher export estimate assumes significance amid global wheat supply shortages.
Argentina has emerged as a key player in the Middle East wheat market amid the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region. Supply tightness in Canada and the US was also seen pushing up demand for Argentinian wheat.
However, Argentina has imposed a limit on its exports amid the rising external demand in a bid to keep inflation in check.
The agriculture ministry Dec. 17 capped wheat exports for MY 2021-22 at 12.5 million mt, before increasing the limit to 14.5 million mt on Jan. 6.
Record output forecast
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Services’ Buenos Aires attaché also estimated Argentina’s wheat output for MY 2021-22 at a record 21.8 million mt, up nearly 24% higher on the year, and higher than the USDA’s official estimate of 20.5 million mt.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has also estimated output at 21.8 million mt.
According to the attaché’s report, production is seen higher due to a slight increase in harvested area and better-than-expected yields.
“In late November and December, as harvest progressed in the core wheat areas, yields were surprisingly high as most farmers were concerned that high temperatures at the end of October had caused damage,” the attaché said in the report.
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